Analisis Pengambilan Keputusan untuk Perencanaan Pembangkit Tenaga ListrikApril 29, 2010 pukul 1:37 pm | Ditulis dalam Paper | Meninggalkan komentar
Agus Sugiyono, Analisis Pengambilan Keputusan untuk Perencanaan Pembangkit Tenaga Listrik, dalam Nurdyastuti, N. dan Boedoyo, M.S., Editor, Strategi Penyediaan Listrik Nasional dalam Rangka Mengantisipasi Pemanfaatan PLTU Batubara Skala Kecil, PLTN, dan Pembangkit Energi Terbarukan, hal. 101-110, ISBN 979-95999-5-4, P3TKKE, BPPT, Jakarta, Januari 2005.
Electricity sector is an important sector to drive industrialization process. There are some importance factors that should be consider making electricity planning, i.e.: energy resource scarcity, energy cost, and environmental impact. MARKAL (market allocation) model is used to make planning strategy based on least cost optimization. Five cases as decision alternatives were created, i.e.: baseline (BASE), increasing renewable energy use (RENEW), household energy conservation (CONSERV), decreasing photovoltaic cost (PVCOST), and replacing captive power (CAPTIVE). Result shows that coal is an dominant fuel for electricity generation in the future almost in every cases.
The final goal of electricity planning is provided information to help decision makers. Decision maker must choose among alternatives that represented in cases. Many aspects in the alternatives have a number of conflicting objectives (e.g., minimize cost and minimize emission). Therefore, it is appropriate using tools to make decision analysis among alternatives. DAM (Decision Analysis Module) is a multiple criteria decision analysis tool that easy to used and powerful to make decision among cases. After performing analysis, RENEW and CONSERV case are the potentially optimal alternatives. If the unit costs of NOx emission is set at a certain value then RENEW case become an optimal alternatives.