Data Historis Konsumsi Energi dan Proyeksi Permintaan-Penyediaan Energi di Sektor Transportasi

Maret 14, 2013 pukul 3:26 pm | Ditulis dalam Paper | Tinggalkan komentar

Agus Sugiyono, Data Historis Konsumsi Energi dan Proyeksi Permintaan-Penyediaan Energi di Sektor Transportasi, Prosiding Seminar dan Peluncuran Buku Outlook Energi Indonesia 2012, hal. 24-29, ISBN 978-979-95202-7-2, PTPSE-BPPT, Jakarta, 28 Januari 2013.

Abstract

    The transport sector plays a very important role in the national economy for the long term. During the 2000-2010 period, energy consumption in the transport sector grew by 6.3% per year. The BPPT-MEDI Model and MARKAL Model is used to project long term energy demand-supply. To accommodate a number of uncertainties, two scenarios were created for future economic growth, i.e. base scenario and MP3EI scenario that assumes each GDP will increase at an average rate of 7.6% and 10.4% per year. Energy demand in the transport sector according to the base scenario will increase from 256 million BOE in 2010 to 963 million BOE in 2030, or will increase by an average of 6.9% per year. Energy demand for MP3EI scenario in 2030 will increase to 1430 million BOE, or will have increased by an average rate of 9.0% per year. Based on the energy demand forecast, road transportation will be the major user of energy, followed by air transportation. Air transportation for Indonesia as an archipelago will play an important role in the future to increase the speed of accessibility and mobility of the people. Energy demand will be supplied by several type of fuels. The use of gasoline will become dominant as the energy supply during the period 2010-2030, followed by the use of ADO/IDO and avtur/avgas. The role of biofuel, especially biodiesel, will increase rapidly in the long term.

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